At the start of 2026, China's infrastructure industry embraced a "strong opening" bolstered by policy support and accelerated project implementation. As a core tool for underground engineering, shield tunneling equipment has seen a sustained release of demand, directly propelling upstream consumable sectors including wear-resistant materials and seals toward definite growth, and fostering a sound momentum of coordinated growth across the industrial chain. With the intensive launch of projects in fields like rail transit, water conservancy engineering, and urban renewal, shield tunneling equipment and its supporting industries will continue to secure broad market space.

I. Dual Drivers of Policies and Funding Propel Shield Tunneling Equipment into a Demand Surge Cycle

The domestic infrastructure sector has sent clear signals of recovery in 2026, featuring distinct structural growth characteristics. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the annual list of "two major categories" of construction projects and allocated 295 billion yuan of central budgetary investment in advance. Coupled with the implementation of the first tranche of 500 billion yuan of new policy-based financial instruments, these measures have provided solid financial support for the delivery of major infrastructure projects.

Recently, numerous regions across the country have intensively launched major infrastructure projects. Projects with a total investment of over tens of billions of yuan in areas such as Yangpu in Shanghai and Nanjing in Jiangsu have commenced construction simultaneously. Among these, the proportion of underground projects including rail transit, cross-river and cross-sea tunnels, and underground utility corridors has increased significantly, directly spurring a sharp rise in demand for shield tunneling equipment.

Industry data shows that the market size of China's shield tunneling machines has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 8% for consecutive years, exceeding 30 billion yuan in 2023 and is expected to approach the 40 billion yuan mark in 2026. In terms of demand structure, urban rail transit remains the core driver. From 2026 to 2030, the total mileage of newly built subways nationwide will exceed 5,000 kilometers, corresponding to a new demand for approximately 800 shield tunneling machines.

Meanwhile, the advancement of major water conservancy projects such as the follow-up projects of the South-to-North Water Diversion and the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project, as well as the renovation of old municipal pipe networks, has further expanded the application scenarios of shield tunneling equipment. Regional demand presents differentiated characteristics: the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta focus on the application of high-end large-diameter shield tunneling machines, while the central and western regions have strong demand for small and medium-sized, multi-functional shield tunneling machines adapted to complex geological conditions.

II. Synchronous Surge in Consumables Demand: Wear-Resistant Materials Open Up a New Growth Blue Ocean

The explosive growth in demand for shield tunneling equipment has been continuously transmitted to the upstream consumables sector, ushering in a golden development period for sub-sectors such as wear-resistant materials and seals. Especially in complex geological projects like the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project, the extreme construction environment has put forward higher requirements for the performance of consumables, further expanding the market growth space.
Data shows that when a TBM is tunneling in hard rock formations, a single unit of TBM cutter head is equipped with 40–80 cutters, and the seals of a single TBM have a value of up to 3–4 million yuan. Meanwhile, plateau low-temperature environments will increase the failure risk of seals by 30%, generating substantial replacement demand.

Currently, the trend of industrial chain synergy and clustered development has become increasingly evident. Regions such as Henan, Hunan, and Jiangsu have formed shield tunneling equipment industrial clusters integrating R&D, manufacturing, and services. The nearby supporting of upstream and downstream enterprises has effectively reduced coordination costs. At the same time, leading equipment manufacturers have deepened cooperation with consumables suppliers to carry out customized R&D, promoting the upgrading of wear-resistant materials toward higher hardness and longer service life. This has built a "equipment + consumables" linkage innovation pattern, enhancing the overall competitiveness of the industrial chain.

III. High Prosperity to Continue Throughout the Year: The Industrial Chain Ushered in Value Revaluation

Looking ahead to the full year of 2026, the high prosperity of the infrastructure industry is expected to be sustained. The total output value of the construction industry is projected to exceed 35 trillion yuan for the year, among which sectors such as rail transit, water conservancy and urban renewal will continue to unleash robust demand, driving the annual new demand for TBMs to remain within the range of 700–900 units.

In the international market, the export potential of domestic shield tunneling machines continues to be unleashed. The export share is expected to rise from the current 18% to over 25%. The expansion of overseas projects will open up a second growth curve for equipment and consumables enterprises.

Industry analysts point out that with the continuous breakthroughs in core technologies and the expansion of the global market, China's shield tunneling equipment industry is striding from "equipment export" to "technical standard export". Benefiting from the dual logic of demand expansion and domestic substitution, upstream consumables sectors such as wear-resistant materials and seals will see further improvement in market concentration. Enterprises with core technologies are expected to achieve both performance growth and valuation enhancement. In the future, all links of the industrial chain will accelerate integration and innovation, providing solid support for the high-quality development of the infrastructure industry.